MINER — Portfolio Learning
Your own base rate from the initiatives you have closed, then what your record says about the next one, put in front of the sponsor at the decision. It challenges; it does not predict.
For the PMO that wants to know its own number, and the sponsor who wants the organisation's history in front of them before they sign.
Method-independent, reading the record FORGE Logic® keeps whatever delivery approach the initiative used.
Planned. Not yet available. Where it sits: after the record. MINER will read what the organisation’s own initiatives — their approvals, their registers, their status history and their closures — say about the next one. Organisation data only.
MINER will answer questions from the organisation’s own record, and only from it. From day one, it will take the outcomes of the initiatives already closed — the estimate approved at the decision, the final cost, the planned and the actual end — and show the organisation’s own base rate beside the published figures: how often its IT initiatives overrun, how often by more than half, and how many have no approved estimate left to measure against.
Over time it will answer four questions from the record: where delivery keeps slipping, which initiatives have not recovered, which issues and risks have been left to run, and how closed initiatives finished against plan.
And it will speak at the next decision, putting what the record says about initiatives like the one being approved in front of the sponsor as a challenge.
It will describe and challenge. It will never set the number, and it will never predict which initiative is next.
The largest study of its kind says nearly one in five IT projects goes more than half over the estimate approved at the investment decision.
Almost no organisation can say what its own number is: the approved estimate is re-baselined away, closures are not measured against it, and lessons are filed and never read.
So each new initiative is approved against the optimism of the day rather than the organisation’s own experience.
MINER will load the outcomes of closed initiatives and show the organisation’s own base rate, with the count of initiatives whose approved estimate is missing.
MINER will answer four questions from the record as it grows, each with how it is worked out and the initiatives behind it.
MINER will put what the record says about initiatives like the one being approved in front of the sponsor, beside the plan’s confidence and open questions.
Where the PMO approves it, MINER will recalibrate the delivery patterns the next plan is built from, as an approved change, never a hidden factor.
MINER will use the organisation’s own data only, and will never predict.
The organisation’s own base rate, labelled with its data source.
Four portfolio insights, each with how it is worked out and the initiatives behind it.
Challenge points at the next decision, kept on the record beside the approval.
Approved pattern changes, recorded as such.